El Niño Fuels Indonesian Wildfires, Causing Widespread Illness

The prevailing El Niño conditions are significantly contributing to the intensity of wildfires across Indonesia, resulting in approximately 100,000 people falling ill or sustaining injuries, according to the nation's health authorities. Current predictions suggest this year's El Niño could be one of the most powerful, if not the strongest, ever recorded.

El Niño is a climatic phenomenon characterized by the warming of Pacific waters shifting eastward. This shift alters global wind patterns and sea levels, leading to increased storm activity in some regions while causing unusually low rainfall in others. This year's El Niño began to develop in June, and due to its formation location in the Pacific, Indonesia is frequently disproportionately impacted.

A representative from Indonesia's health ministry informed the media on Thursday that as of September 9, the number of individuals treated for respiratory ailments linked to the fires had reached 113,336. This figure represents more than a doubling of cases since the beginning of the month, as reported by Reuters. Officials also stated that over 12.5 million people have been exposed to the haze generated by these fires.

These fires pose a particular danger to public health because they are predominantly occurring in peatlands. These wetland ecosystems release higher concentrations of harmful particulates and other toxic substances when ignited. The resulting toxic haze has now extended beyond Indonesia's borders, affecting Singapore, Malaysia, and the Philippines.

Beyond the health consequences, the wildfires have also caused a substantial increase in carbon emissions from Indonesia, according to Fire Emissions Watch. The country has already contributed 12.82 megatons of carbon to the atmosphere through wildfires in 2026, a figure nearly 100 times greater than the total emissions for the entirety of 2025.

El Niño conditions have historically triggered severe wildfires in Indonesia, notably in 1997 and 2015. During the 2015 event, smoke from over 100,000 peatland fires necessitated hospitalizations for half a million people due to respiratory, eye, and skin conditions.

Current severe drought conditions in Indonesia bear a strong resemblance to those observed in 2015, another El Niño year, according to NASA data. This aridity facilitates the easier spread of fires within underground peat deposits, and the drought is expected to persist until the onset of the rainy season in October or November.